Poker Variance Simulator


Attention :: ev++'s equity calculator app Slice is now available! Slice is an equity calculator app that works for Holdem, Omaha, Omaha 8/b, Seven Stud and Seven Stud 8/b. Slice has many cool features including: load marked hands from HEM & PT3, equity graphing, saved ranges and more!

For a discussion of the variance simulator please see these two blog posts: Post 1 & Post 2.




* See the Variance Simulator FAQ below for a description of bb/100.


Simulated winnings graph

This plot shows the cumulative winnings of all the trial runs and is meant to represent what the Hold'em Manager or PT3 graph would look like for a player who always played with the given winrate and standard deviation.


Large Downswing Probability

This is a cumulative histogram of the distribution of largest downswings from all the runs. The far left (frequency of 1) represents the smallest downswing from all the runs (ie. everyone will experience a downswing at least this big). The far right (frequency close to zero) represents the largest downswing from all runs.


Longest Breakeven Probability

This is a cumulative histogram of the distribution of largest BE stretches from all the runs. The far left (frequency of 1) represents the shortest breakeven stretch from all the runs (ie. everyone experienced a breakeven stretch at least this long). The far right (frequency close to zero) represents the longest breakeven stretch from all runs.


Distribution of win rates

This is the distribution of winrates for all of the trials.



Variance Simulator FAQ’s

Do you have a downloadable version?

Sure! Check out this page for a downloadable version including source code.

How can I help myself deal with the highs and lows of variance?

Remember "Someday you will run worse than you ever thought possible". Do yourself a favour and read the excellent book Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo. Other books to read include Poker Winners Are Different by Alan Schoonmaker, and The Poker Mindset: Essential Attitudes for Poker Success by Mathew Hilger and Ian Taylor.

What can I do to reduce my variance?

The easiest thing to do is add some variance free income to your game with one of our Rakeback offers. Rakeback can help you through a lot of those months where you're experiencing a downswing or a breakeven stretch.

What is the difference between bb/100 and PTBB/100 (or simply BB/100)?

The measure bb/100 is a short form for big blinds per 100 hands while the terms PTBB/100 and BB/100 refer to big bets per 100 hands where a big bet is defined as being twice the big blind.

How do I find my standard deviation in Poker Tracker 3?

Please refer to this post on the 2+2 forums: find your Standard Deviation in PokerTracker 3.

How do I find my standard deviation in Hold'em Manager?

On the far left of the Reports tab in Hold'em Manager, click on the + sign. Now add the standard deviation and save. You can use either BB/100 or bb/100 but if you use BB/100 make sure you multiply by two before entering the number in our poker variance simulator.

So how long is the long run?

Too long ;)

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